Back after a week away, and let’s be honest, a week away probably saved you money if you follow these picks. As we push into April and the college lacrosse season gets dialed up by conference play, we have plenty of data to try and look at for trends. This week, I wrote a one (or two) sentence trend for every team in DI. You can view all the data I have from the season so far yourself by clicking here.
This week, I tried to lean into some of those trends a bit as I picked my three favorite games, two of which also happen to be my favorite over/under plays as well.
Hobart vs St Bonaventure
Hobart is -6.5 at home in this one, with the total at 23.5. I love the under here. The Bonnies haven’t scored more than six goals in a game since February. Hobart, despite doing plenty of scoring, hasn’t hit just one over in their last six games. This is going to the lowest total for a Hobart game this year by a two-goal margin, but I like this one to go under regardless. For the spread, Hobart is just 2-5-1 against the spread, and one of their covers is by the hook. They are 3-1 as a favorite straight up, but have covered just once. The Bonnies are not good against the spread. They did however cover last week in a battle with Marquette that finished 9-5. I’ve got the Bonnies to cover the 6.5, and the under.
Manhattan vs Marist
I’m could be picking this one in the dark. Don’t care. Just vibes and trends. That’s all we’re doing. Manhattan is 7-2 against the spread, and a perfect 6-0 straight up with four covers when they are favored. They’ve also gone under in seven of their nine games, despite the fact that their highest total yet this year is 23.5. They’ve hit the under at 20.5 or less five times in six games. Marist is 3-6 against the spread. They are 1-5 as an underdog with just a single cover. The Jaspers have been one of my favorite teams to watch and pick all season, and I’ll ride them the rest of the way. Whenever the lines come out, I don’t care what they are, Manhattan and the under. This week, it's Manhattan -3.5 and under 19.5 I'll take it. And the week after. Every week, Manhattan and the under.
Hopkins vs Rutgers
Enough of those small conference matchups, let’s take a look at the big boys. Hopkins is an underdog with more juice than a pack of gushers. The Jays have covered in five of their last six games. The series between these two teams is an even split of 5-5 since it became a Big 10 game in 2015. Of Rutgers seven wins this year, six of them are at home. The lone road win was against UMass where they only managed 11 goals. They travel to Homewood this weekend, and have failed to score more than 11 goals in each of their last two games including that UMass game. They’ve gone under in both games. Juice be damned, I’m on the Jays +1.5, on Senior Day no less, but probably would rather be on the money line at -120. I’ll also be on the under at 23.5.
Bonus! Give me Utah. There’s nobody hotter. They’ve covered in seven straight games. They’re up against Jacksonville, who has covered once in their last six and just narrowly escaped Cleveland State with a win. Utah is actually -1.5 at plus money in this one which really makes it interesting, but I'll go with the Utes to monkey wrench the rankings this week.