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College Lacrosse Conference Tournament Scenarios for Everyone. I hope.

Updated: Apr 28

Some conference tournaments are already all locked up. Namely, the Big Ten and the MAAC tournament fields are set, with action in their respective opening rounds happening this weekend. In some other conferences, things are still unclear. Plenty of one seeds are still up for grabs, and in some conferences, there’s enough permutations of standings to make you wish you never asked how things could go. After going through tiebreaker rules and looking at current standings with remaining schedules, I've landed on the below as the seeding scenarios for each conference in college lacrosse.


Here are the seeding scenarios for each conference tournament around the country that are still being sorted out.


THIS POST WILL BE UPDATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND FROM 4/26-4/28. SCENARIOS HIGHLIGHTED IN RED ARE NO LONGER POSSIBLE.


IVY LEAGUE


Four team field

Top seed hosts

Teams already in: Cornell, Yale, Penn

Teams who can still make it: Brown, Princeton


There are three key games this weekend. Cornell plays Dartmouth, Yale plays Princeton, and Brown plays Harvard. Penn is idle. Harvard and Dartmouth can’t make the tournament, but Harvard can keep Brown out. The top overall seed hosts, and there are no byes at stake. The possibilities:


Cornell, Yale, and Harvard win:

  1. Cornell (5-1)

  2. Yale (5-1)

  3. Penn (4-2)

  4. Princeton (3-3)


Cornell, Yale, and Brown win:

  1. Cornell (5-1)

  2. Yale (5-1)

  3. Penn (4-2)

  4. Brown (3-3)


Cornell, Princeton, and Harvard win:

  1. Cornell (5-1)

  2. Princeton (4-2)

  3. Yale (4-2)

  4. Penn (4-2)


Cornell, Princeton, and Brown win:

  1. Cornell (5-1)

  2. Princeton (4-2)

  3. Yale (4-2)

  4. Penn (4-2)


Dartmouth, Yale, and Harvard win:

  1. Yale (5-1)

  2. Penn (4-2) 

  3. Cornell (4-2)

  4. Princeton (3-3)


Dartmouth, Yale, and Brown win:

  1. Yale (5-1)

  2. Penn (4-2) 

  3. Cornell (4-2)

  4. Brown (3-3)


And now two weird ones. In these scenarios, there are four teams tied with a 4-2 record The highest seed goes to the team with the best cumulative record against the other teams tied for the spot. However in this four way tie, both Cornell and Princeton are 2-1 against the others. Cornell beat Princeton, so they would be the one, Princeton the two. Yale and Penn are 1-2 against that field, and Yale beat Penn. That makes Yale three, and Penn four.


Dartmouth, Princeton, Harvard win

  1. Cornell (4-2)

  2. Princeton (4-2)

  3. Yale (4-2)

  4. Penn (4-2)


Dartmouth, Princeton, and Brown win

  1. Cornell (4-2)

  2. Princeton (4-2)

  3. Yale (4-2)

  4. Penn (4-2)



ASUN


Six team field

Hosted by Air Force

Teams already in: Air Force, Bellarmine, Jacksonville, Utah

Teams who can still make it: Cleveland State, Robert Morris, Detroit Mercy


Jacksonville, Utah and Air Force are all at 7-1 in conference. They’ll be the top three in some order, with the top two getting byes. Bellarmine is at 5-3 and will be the four in almost every scenario. Cleveland State and Robert Morris are 4-4, while Detroit Mercy is 3-5. Mercer, Queens, and Lindenwood can’t make the tournament. 


Notable games this weekend are Cleveland State vs Detroit Mercy, Air Force vs Robert Morris, Bellarmine vs Jacksonville, and Utah vs Queens. Queens will be a heavy underdog, but that result impacts the standings, so we’ll look at permutations where they shock the world and beat Utah. In a scenario where all of Utah, Jacksonville, and Air Force win, or all lose, it actually goes all the way down to goal differential between the three. Utah is +1, Jacksonville -1, and Air Force is even, so Utah would get the top seed. Unlike some conferences, the tiebreaker fully determines seeding. So Air Force will be the two seed, and Jacksonville the three.


Jacksonville, Air Force, Utah, Cleveland State win:

  1. Utah (8-1)

  2. Air Force (8-1)

  3. Jacksonville (8-1)

  4. Bellarmine (5-4)

  5. Cleveland State (5-4)

  6. Robert Morris (4-5)


Jacksonville, Air Force, Utah, and Detroit Mercy win

  1. Utah (8-1)

  2. Jacksonville (8-1)

  3. Air Force (8-1)

  4. Bellarmine (5-4)

  5. Detroit Mercy (4-5)

  6. Cleveland State (4-5)


Jacksonville, Robert Morris, Utah, and Cleveland State win

  1. Utah (8-1)

  2. Jacksonville (8-1)

  3. Air Force (7-2)

  4. Bellarmine (5-4)

  5. Cleveland State (5-4)

  6. Robert Morris (4-5)


Jacksonville, Robert Morris, Utah, and Detroit Mercy win

  1. Utah (8-1)

  2. Jacksonville (8-1)

  3. Air Force (7-2)

  4. Robert Morris (5-4)

  5. Bellarmine (5-4)

  6. Detroit Mercy (4-5)


Jacksonville, Air Force, Queens, and Cleveland State win:

  1. Jacksonville (8-1)

  2. Air Force (8-1)

  3. Utah (7-2)

  4. Bellarmine (5-4)

  5. Cleveland State (5-4)

  6. Robert Morris (4-5)


Jacksonville, Air Force, Queens, and Detroit Mercy win:

  1. Jacksonville (8-1)

  2. Air Force (8-1)

  3. Utah (7-2)

  4. Bellarmine (5-4)

  5. Detroit Mercy (4-5)

  6. Cleveland State (4-5)


Jacksonville, Robert Morris, Queens, Cleveland State win:

  1. Jacksonville (8-1)

  2. Air Force (7-2)

  3. Utah (7-2)

  4. Bellarmine (5-4)

  5. Cleveland State (5-4)

  6. Robert Morris (5-4)


Jacksonville, Robert Morris, Queens, and Detroit Mercy win:

  1. Jacksonville (8-1)

  2. Air Force (7-2)

  3. Utah (7-2)

  4. Robert Morris (5-4)

  5. Bellarmine (5-4)

  6. Detroit Mercy (4-5)


Bellarmine, Air Force, Utah, and Cleveland State win:

  1. Air Force (8-1)

  2. Utah (8-1)

  3. Jacksonville (7-2)

  4. Bellarmine (6-3)

  5. Cleveland State (5-4)

  6. Robert Morris (4-5)


Bellarmine, Air Force, Utah, and Detroit Mercy win:

  1. Air Force (8-1)

  2. Utah (8-1)

  3. Jacksonville (7-2)

  4. Bellarmine (6-3)

  5. Detroit Mercy (4-5)

  6. Cleveland State (4-5)


Bellarmine, Air Force, Queens, Cleveland State win:

  1. Air Force (8-1)

  2. Utah (7-2)

  3. Jacksonville (7-2)

  4. Bellarmine (6-3)

  5. Cleveland State (5-4)

  6. Robert Morris (4-5)


Bellarmine, Air Force, Queens, Detroit Mercy win:

  1. Air Force (8-1)

  2. Utah (7-2)

  3. Jacksonville (7-2)

  4. Bellarmine (6-3)

  5. Detroit Mercy (4-5)

  6. Cleveland State (4-5)


Bellarmine, Robert Morris, Utah, Cleveland State win:

  1. Utah (8-1)

  2. Jacksonville (7-2)

  3. Air Force (7-2)

  4. Bellarmine (6-3)

  5. Cleveland State (5-4)

  6. Robert Morris (5-4)


Bellarmine, Robert Morris, Utah, Detroit Mercy win:

  1. Utah (8-1)

  2. Jacksonville (7-2)

  3. Air Force (7-2)

  4. Bellarmine (6-3)

  5. Robert Morris (5-4)

  6. Detroit Mercy (4-5)


Bellarmine, Robert Morris, Queens, Cleveland State win:

  1. Utah (7-2)

  2. Jacksonville (7-2)

  3. Air Force (7-2)

  4. Bellarmine (6-3)

  5. Cleveland State (5-4)

  6. Robert Morris (5-4)


Bellarmine, Robert Morris, Queens, Detroit Mercy win: 

  1. Utah (7-2)

  2. Jacksonville (7-2)

  3. Air Force (7-2)

  4. Bellarmine (6-3)

  5. Robert Morris (5-4)

  6. Detroit Mercy (4-5)


So a lot of different ways seeding can go, but the tournament field is pretty close to being set. Detroit Mercy can still make it into the tournament with some help.


PATRIOT LEAGUE


Six Team Field

Top Seed Hosts:

Teams that are locked in: Army, Colgate, Lehigh, Loyola, Boston University, Navy

Teams that can still make it: None.


Oh my goodness. You thought the ASUN was wild.


Army, Colgate, Lehigh, and Loyola are at 5-2. 

BU and Navy are 4-3. 


These six teams will be the six teams in the tournament, that’s the good news. Regardless of results, that’s the field. The seeding, as you can imagine by looking at the records, is the messy part. Army can finish anywhere from one to six. Same with Colgate and Loyola. The top two seeds get a bye, and the top overall seed hosts the tournament, so a lot on the line for teams trying to get that AQ for the NCAA tournament.


There are four games this weekend that will dictate who finishes where. Colgate vs BU, Loyola vs Army, Navy vs Bucknell, and Lafayette vs Lehigh. Eight teams, four games, that means 16 different permutations of outcomes and seeding. I think the best way to do this is just list each permutation, and tell you who finishes where if that happens.


Colgate, Loyola, Navy, and Lafeyatte win:

  1. Colgate (6-2)

  2. Loyola (6-2)

  3. Army (5-3)

  4. Lehigh (5-3)

  5. Navy (5-3)

  6. BU (4-4)


Colgate Loyola, Navy, and Lehigh win:

  1. Loyola (6-2)

  2. Lehigh (6-2)

  3. Colgate (6-2)

  4. Army (5-3)

  5. Navy (5-3)

  6. BU (4-4)


Colgate, Loyola, Bucknell, and Lafayette win:

  1. Colgate (6-2)

  2. Loyola (6-2)

  3. Army (5-3)

  4. Lehigh (5-3)

  5. Navy (4-4)

  6. BU (4-4)


Colgate, Loyola, Bucknell, and Lehigh win:

  1. Colgate (6-2)

  2. Loyola (6-2)

  3. Lehigh (6-2)

  4. Army (5-3)

  5. Navy (4-4)

  6. BU (4-4)


Colgate, Army, Navy, and Lafayette Win:

  1. Colgate (6-2)

  2. Army (6-2)

  3. Loyola (5-3)

  4. Lehigh (5-3)

  5. Navy (5-3)

  6. BU (4-4)


Colgate, Army, Navy, and Lehigh win:

  1. Army (6-2)

  2. Lehigh (6-2)

  3. Colgate (6-2)

  4. Loyola (5-3)

  5. Navy (5-3)

  6. BU (4-4)


Colgate, Army, Bucknell, and Lafayette win

  1. Colgate (6-2)

  2. Army (6-2)

  3. Loyola (5-3)

  4. Lehigh (5-3)

  5. Navy (4-4)

  6. BU (4-4)


Colgate, Army, Bucknell, and Lehigh win:

  1. Colgate (6-2)

  2. Army (6-2)

  3. Lehigh (6-2)

  4. Loyola (5-3)

  5. Navy (4-4)

  6. BU (4-4)


BU, Loyola, Navy, Lafayette win:

  1. Loyola (6-2)

  2. Lehigh (5-3)

  3. BU (5-3)

  4. Army (5-3)

  5. Navy (5-3)

  6. Colgate (5-3)


BU, Loyola, Navy, and Lehigh win:

  1. Loyola (6-2)

  2. Lehigh (6-2)

  3. Navy (5-3)

  4. BU (5-3)

  5. Colgate (5-3)

  6. Army (5-3)


BU, Loyola, Bucknell, and Lafayette win:

  1. Loyola (6-2)

  2. Lehigh (5-3)

  3. BU (5-3)

  4. Colgate (5-3)

  5. Army (5-3)

  6. Navy (4-4)


BU, Loyola, Bucknell, and Lehigh win:

  1. Loyola (6-2)

  2. Lehigh (6-2)

  3. BU (5-3)

  4. Colgate (5-3)

  5. Army (5-3)

  6. Navy (4-4)


BU, Army, Navy, and Lafayette win:

  1. Army (6-2)

  2. Lehigh (5-3)

  3. BU (5-3)

  4. Loyola (5-3)

  5. Navy (5-3)

  6. Colgate (5-3)


BU, Army, Navy, and Lehigh win:

  1. Army (6-2)

  2. Lehigh (6-2)

  3. Navy (5-3)

  4. BU (5-3)

  5. Colgate (5-3)

  6. Loyola (5-3)


BU, Army, Bucknell, and Lafayette win:

  1. Army (6-2)

  2. Lehigh (5-3)

  3. BU (5-3)

  4. Colgate (5-3)

  5. Loyola (5-3)

  6. Navy (4-4)


BU, Army, Bucknell, and Lehigh win:

  1. Army (6-2)

  2. Lehigh (6-2)

  3. BU (5-3)

  4. Colgate (5-3)

  5. Loyola (5-3)

  6. Navy (4-4)


Easy right? These games all get played at around the same time. BU and Colgate start at 6pm, Army/Loyola and Bucknell/Navy are both at 7pm, Lehigh/Lafayette is at 7:30pm, all on Friday.



CAA


Four team field

Tournament held at Towson

Teams locked in: Delaware, Towson, Fairfield

Teams who can make it: Monmouth, Drexel, Hofstra, Stony Brook


Those teams who can still make it are all 2-4 in CAA play. Monmouth plays Drexel and Hofstra plays Stony Brook this weekend. On top of that, Delaware and Towson play, they are both 6-0.


Winner of Towson and Delaware is the 1 seed, the loser gets the two seed. Fairfield is locked into the three seed at 4-2, and can't move up or down. So only the four seed is at stake.


For the other two games, two teams will get to 3-4. The tiebreaker is head to head competition. All four teams have a scenario that gets them in. So here’s how things can go in the CAA for the four spot:


Monmouth and Hofstra win, Hofstra gets the four seed.

Drexel and and Hofstra win, Drexel gets the four seed.

Monmouth and Stony Brook win, Monmouth gets the four seed.

Drexel and Stony Brook win, Stony Brook gets the four seed.



BIG EAST


Four team field

Teams locked in: Denver, Georgetown, Villanova 

Teams who can still get in: St John’s, Providence


Denver is playing Marquette this weekend, the outcome of that game cannot change anything. Denver will be the one seed and Marquette can’t make the tournament.


Georgetown is playing Villanova, Providence is playing St John’s. Here’s how things can go:


Georgetown wins, Providence wins:

  1. Denver (5-0 or 4-1)

  2. Georgetown (4-1)

  3. Providence (3-2)

  4. Villanova (2-3)


Georgetown wins, St John’s wins:

  1. Denver (5-0 or 4-1)

  2. Georgetown (4-1)

  3. Villanova (2-3)

  4. St John’s (2-3)


Villanova wins, Providence wins:

  1. Denver (5-0 or 4-1)

  2. Villanova (3-2)

  3. Georgetown (3-2)

  4. Providence (3-2)


Villanova wins, St John’s wins

  1. Denver (5-0 or 4-1)

  2. Villanova (3-2)

  3. Georgetown (3-2)

  4. St John’s (2-3)


ATLANTIC 10


Four team field

Hosted by UMass

Teams locked in: St Joe’s, Richmond, High Point, UMass

Teams who can still get in: none


This is a fairly easy one. St Joe’s play’s Richmond this weekend, winner of that game is the one seed, loser is the two seed. 


High Point plays UMass this weekend, winner of that game is the three seed, loser is the four seed.


No other considerations. Finally, a simple conference. 


AMERICA EAST


Four team field

Hosted by the top seed

Teams locked in: Albany

Teams who can still get in: Bryant, Binghamton, UMBC, Vermont, Merrimack


Albany is at 5-1 in conference play, Merrimack is 3-3, the others are all 4-2. NJIT and UMass Lowell are out, they are 0-6 in conference play. 


Notable games this weekend are Binghamton vs Albany, Merrimack vs Bryant, and UMBC vs Vermont. Depending on results, we could see all four teams in the field have 5-2 conference records, and go deep into the tiebreaker world. In the America East, the first tiebreaker is head to head. After that, it’s winning percentage in conference games versus conference opponents in descending rank order. So in scenarios where there are four different 5-2 teams, you break the tie going to the two teams that are 2-1 against the group, and then the head to head result between those two teams. 


Here’s how things can go:


Albany, Merrimack, and UMBC win:

  1. Albany (6-1)

  2. UMBC (5-2)

  3. Vermont (4-3)

  4. Merrimack (4-3)


Albany, Merrimack, and Vermont win:

  1. Albany (6-1)

  2. Vermont (5-2)

  3. UMBC (4-3)

  4. Merrimack (4-3)


Albany, Bryant, and UMBC win:

  1. Albany (6-1)

  2. UMBC (5-2)

  3. Bryant (5-2)

  4. Vermont (4-3)


Albany, Bryant, and Vermont win:

  1. Albany (6-1)

  2. Vermont (5-2)

  3. Bryant (5-2)

  4. Binghamton (4-3)


Binghamton, Merrimack, and UMBC win:

  1. Binghamton (5-2)

  2. Albany (5-2)

  3. UMBC (5-2)

  4. Vermont (4-3)


Binghamton, Bryant, and UMBC win:

  1. Bryant (5-2)

  2. Binghamton (5-2) 

  3. Albany (5-2)

  4. UMBC (5-2)


Binghamton, Bryant, and Vermont win:

  1. Bryant (5-2)

  2. Binghamton (5-2) 

  3. Albany (5-2) 

  4. Vermont (5-2)


ACC


Four team field

Played in Charlotte, NC

Teams that are locks: Notre Dame, Syracuse

Teams who can still get in: UVA, Duke, UNC 


We can talk about the ACC tournament even though there is no AQ from it. The bracket can still go a few different ways. UNC, believe it or not, is still in this. At least for the conference tournament. Syracuse is the only one of the five teams that are done; their record is 3-1. Unbeaten Notre Dame has locked up the one seed, Cuse has the two. Games this weekend are between Notre Dame and Virginia, and the classic rivalry of Duke and UNC.


The scenarios are:


Notre Dame and Duke win:

  1. Notre Dame (4-0)

  2. Syracuse (3-1)

  3. Duke (2-2)

  4. UVA (1-3)


Notre Dame and North Carolina win:

  1. Notre Dame (4-0)

  2. Syracuse (3-1)

  3. Duke (1-3)

  4. UVA (1-3) 

  5. UNC (1-3) 


This is a fun one. Duke, UVA, UNC are all 1-3. They are all 1-1 against each other in this scenario. They are all 0-1 against Notre Dame and Syracuse. The next tiebreaker is goal differential between teams in the three team tie. The best differential gets the three seed, and then the head to head winner between the other two teams gets the four seed. Going into the weekend, differentials are Duke +6, UVA +2, and UNC -8. Goal differntial is capped at five. So the Heels need to win by 5+ to make it, or they need to win and have UVA beat Notre Dame to make it.


Virginia and Duke win:

  1. Notre Dame (3-1)

  2. Syracuse (3-1)

  3. Duke (2-2)

  4. Virginia (2-2)


Virginia and North Carolina win:

  1. Notre Dame (3-1)

  2. Syracuse (3-1)

  3. Virginia (2-2)

  4. North Carolina (1-3)

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