In the past we get a lot of blue blood picks in here. The games you’ll probably watch. Well, this week, I’ve got some picks in the games you won’t. But maybe you should because these teams are earning your eyeballs. We also have a few of my favorite over/unders of the week after it was suggested they be included. If you have content or suggestions for things you want to see, hit the mailbag link and let me know about it. My three favorites this week:
Cleveland State -8.5 over Lindenwood
Like I said, not exactly blue bloods this week. Cleveland State is America’s only team that is undefeated against the spread right now. They are 4-0. They covered as dog twice and a favorite twice, winning the two games they were favored. It’s a big spread here for teams that you might not consider likely to play a high scoring game. And the total for this one is only 22.5 Lindenwood played close games with NJIT and LIU, but Cleveland State is distinctly better. Cleveland State is at home, just the second home game of the year. In the first, they put up 18 goals on Canisius. This will certainly big the biggest favorite line for them of the year, but I’m taking them to stay undefeated ATS and to cover against Lindenwood.
Bellarmine +2.5 over Utah
Bellarmine is on a beast of roast trip, and they’re on fire during it. They played VMI at home on March 4th, but otherwise haven’t played a home game since February 11. They covered, and won, against St Bonaventure in that game on February 11, and have covered, and won, every game since. Five straight wins, all of them covers. They’ve been favorites three times in that stretch, and a dog once. They were a dog to Marquette and won outright, a huge win for the program. This weekend, they head out to Utah. The Utes have lost three straight, although they also have a great record against the spread, covering in their last four games. Kyle Playsted and Benn O’Rourk are exciting players, and I think JC Higginbotham is a legit netminder. If Bellarmine keeps the faceoffs a battle, they can hang, and I like them to cover here.
UVA -2.5 over Maryland
I had to pick this one, how could you not. Last year, when these two teams yet, we didn’t quite know just how deadly Maryland was yet. UVA spent some time atop the polls before Maryland took the crown. This was anticipated as the game that would announce who really had the inside track to Memorial Day. UVA had beat up just about everyone, Maryland played a close one with Notre Dame but otherwise was dominating. It was a marquee game. And Maryland ROLLED. 23-12. A lot of those UVA players are back, and I’m betting they didn’t appreciate that feeling much. This game can be the same type of game this year. The one where the true leader, the top dog in the nation, let’s everyone else know it’s us and not anyone else. I think UVA plays pissed in this game. With their depth of scoring, they can even deploy how they did against Ohio State and let Shellenberger just eat a matchup with a player like Makar, and then the rest of UVA feasts. They have that many weapons. UVA wins, and does it going away, covering the 2.5
Favorite Over/Unders:
Denver/Ohio State UNDER 23.5
Denver has played one game this year that saw 24 goals get scored. Ohio State has shown that if you can limit Jack Myers, they grind to a halt. Last week Denver lost to Yale 11-9, winning faceoffs and taking long possessions. I don’t Denver scores much in this one, but I think they’re possession and defense style keeps the total low and within striking distance for the Pios. I’m on the under at 23.5.
Hofstra vs Fairfield UNDER 23.5
Hofstra has gone under in six of seven games. Fairfield has gone under in five of seven games. They’ve hit 24 goals, between both teams, five times in 14 games. Hofstra lost Riley Turner to injury on Tuesday night, his status could have an impact on their offensive output. Both teams have had their struggles on the offensive end. The Stags don’t have a serious depth of scoring and weapons, Hofstra shooting has been poor at times. I do like Hofstra’s goalie, Mac Gates. He turned in a solid performance against Cuse on Tuesday as he was under assault all night. I think these two teams played a physical, gritty rock fight of a game, and it stays under the 23.5
Duke vs UNC OVER 25.5
Have to pick an over, and this is the one. The number is 25.5. Duke has played seven games and gone over in six of them. Five of those overs have been 25.5 or more. The UNC defense has not yet seen an offense as good as Duke. Andrew McAdorey broke out in spectacular fashion against Loyola, a defense that I consider to be better than UNC’s. It’s a rivalry game of the best kind, so these teams will be fired up, but I just don’t look at the UNC roster and see personnel ready to handle Brennan/McAdorey/Williams. I also like Naso to have an edge facing off in this one, giving the Duke offense plenty of chances to do some heavy damage. I like Duke to win and cover -3, and I like this game to soar to the over.
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