The fat lady is warming up, the MVP race is wide open, and it's Carolina's title to lose. PLL Week 8 Overreactions.

The fat lady starting warming up in Utah

Utah has been a wonderful market for the PLL so far. The fans are supportive and engaged. They booed Brennan O’Neill every time he touched the ball for the duration of the game against Denver. They showed up in droves, they cheered for their second banner raising in as many years, it’s a clear western stronghold for the PLL. But the home fans got some tough breaks this weekend. Utah came into the weekend really needing to avoid going 0-2. The Archers were 3-4, in the playoff mix, but with two games against Western Conference opponents, an 0-2 weekend to drop them to 3-6 would put the season on life support. They dropped the opener to the Redwoods, 9-8. Tom Schreiber and Grant Ament both got hurt in that game, and couldn’t play in game two. That game was against the league’s hottest team, the Denver Outlaws, and while the Archers battled, they ultimately got buried by two pointers. Now 3-6, the Archers have just one game left this season. Their score differential is -16. They have a bye this weekend, which could be huge and give them time to get healthy. But at this point, the injury bug has taken its toll on the Archers. Tre Leclaire missed multiple games to start the year, Matt Moore’s season was cut short, Schreiber is out again, Ament has dealt with multiple injuries. The two time defending champs being a longshot, likely needing a win and some help, to even make the playoffs is evidence for just how quickly things can change in the PLL. It only takes a year or two for a team to go from worst to first, and the reverse can happen just as quickly. 

The MVP race is suddenly wide open

The first half of the year, the MVP race looked like a runaway. Last year, Jeff Teat had the award all but sewn up by the All Star break. This year, Michael Sowers looked like he was on the same trajectory. But things have changed. Sowers still leads the league in points, but the gap has closed and he’s now actually tied with Connor Shellenberger. Sowers has fewer points in his last four games (14) than he had in his first two (15). As Sowers production has returned to mere all pro levels, rather than lacrosse alien space god levels, the gap has closed. Connor Shellenberger, as noted, is tied for the league lead in points and shooting an otherworldly 43.8%. Pat Kavanagh is averaging over five points per game over this last six games and has become the most dynamic weapon on a team with four Tewaaraton winners. Logan McNaney is the only regular started in the league with a save percentage north of 60 and Denver hasn’t lost since McNaney got the starting job. Brennan O’Neill is averaging five points per game over his last four games and has caught fire as a shooter; he could charge to the front of the race late. Any of these players taking home the hardware as of this moment is a possibility. The front runner changes on a game to game, minute to minute basis each weekend.

It’s hard to bury teams with possession

Denver had a possession advantage of just over five minutes against the Archers. They completed 105 more passes and had 119 more touches. While the final score was 15-10, that was mostly thanks to two pointers. In terms of times the ball actually went into the goal, Denver won 11-9. All that extra time with the ball, passes, and touches only translated to a few more scores. Some of this is because of timing rules. Luke Wierman was excellent, so Denver had a lot of 32 second possessions. But that heavy an advantage, one would think, should translate into a wider margin of victory. California had the ball for 8:18 more than Utah did, and won by one goal. Philadelphia outpossessed Carolina by 4:16 of game clock, but touches and passes were almost exactly even, and Carolina actually won the game in OT. Having the ball is important, but efficiency remains king. New York had the ball for about 3 minutes less than Maryland, but won the game. The Atlas shot just under 30% on the day, the Whips shot just under 16%. The great equalizer here is the 32 second clock. Teams with the faceoff edge don’t always translate into extra possession time. Coach Tierney has acknowledged that this feels counterintuitive at times - the team that’s successful is being punished for being successful.

It’s Carolina’s title to lose

The Chaos have gone through it this year. Six of their top scorers, including top overall, from last year are gone, and a seventh is on IR. A close defender retired, arguably their top two SSDMs aren’t with the team anymore (Ian MacKay is playing box, Zach Geddes left in free agency). After a 20-6 loss in Baltimore to Maryland, who was playing their second game, plenty of PLL fans, media, and pundits had Carolina written in pen for the first overall pick as the league’s worst team. Since that loss, the Chaos are 3-1, the sole loss coming by one goal to Utah. They are 4-4, in the playoff hunt, and get to try and avenge that Archer’s loss this weekend. Owen Hiltz has taken the league by storm, and has 22 points despite being a late arrival to the team this year. Jackson Eicher, a post draft addition, just passed the 20 point mark on the year. Over the weekend, they gutted out a 15-14 OT over the Waterdogs. Jack Rowlett needed a few IV bags to even get on the field, but won the Sowers matchup. Justin Inacio won the faceoff battle against Alec Stathakis, and added a huge juice goal. They flipped Jack McDonald for Scott Smith, and Smith looks like a great scheme fit for the way the Chaos play defense. Spencer Ford only had three picks on draft day, but made them count, and his signings outside of the draft are fitting together in Roy Colsey’s system. Carolina has work to do in the score differential column, but they are absolutely in contention for a playoff spot in the west. Showing up to a playoff game with Blaze Riorden and their defense gives them the chance to live up to their famous post season party crasher reputation.