NLL Week 6 Primer

Welcome to 2026. New beginnings, fresh starts, resolutions to attempt to keep, it’s a great time to try and focus on what you want to change in your life. Some NLL teams will be looking to turn the page and start fresh after some tough sledding early in the year, others will lean into what has led to success so far and stick to it. Whether your team is in need of a fresh outlook or not, the first weekend of the new year has plenty of quality games to watch. Here’s the rundown:

FRIDAY

Who: Halifax Thunderbirds (2-1) vs Saskatchewan Rush (3-1)

Where: Sasktel Centre, Saskatchewan

When: 8:00pm EST

The Spread: Saskatchewan favored by 1.5 (+114), game total set at 21.5

SATURDAY

Who: Ottawa Black Bears (2-2) vs Oshawa FireWolves (1-3)

Where: Tribute Communities Centre, Oshawa

When: 7:00pm EST

The Spread: Ottawa favored by 1.5 (+110), game total set at 20.5

Who: Las Vegas Desert Dogs (2-1) vs Buffalo Bandits (2-1)

Where: Keybank Center, Buffalo

When: 7:00pm EST

The Spread: Buffalo favored by 1.5 (-188), game total set at 23.5

Who: Rochester Knighthawks (2-0) vs Colorado Mammoth (1-2)

Where: Ball Arena, Colorado

When: 9:00pm EST

The Spread: Rochester favored by 1.5 (-105), game total set at 21.5

Who: Calgary Roughnecks (1-2) vs San Diego Seals (1-1)

Where: Pechanga Arena, San Diego

When: 10:00pm EST

The Spread: San Diego favored by 1.5 (+105), game total set at 22.5

STORIES TO WATCH

The Rematch

What better way to ring in the new year than to replay a spectacular matchup from last week? Halifax and Saskatchewan play the second half of their home and home, this time in . The Rush won with a last minute goal from Austin Shanks last week. Halifax shot themselves in the foot plenty, and that’s been an issue this season. Too much time in the penalty box. At even strength Halifax has the horses to play with anyone. This week they have to make the trip west to try and split this home and home. The Rush, meanwhile, can position themselves for a little run here if they can get a win. They’re next three opponents are Vegas, Oshawa, and Calgary, all of whom will be underdogs to the Rush. If they beat Halifax, the possibility of an undefeated January is real. No better way to start a new year. 

The last weekend for the undefeated and winless?

Rochester is the only team left that has yet to lose a game. Calgary is the only team left that has yet to win one. Both are in action. Returning to the theme of new year, fresh start, Calgary will need to start fast to give themselves a chance. The Bandits left them an opening to do some early damage last week, but the Roughnecks just started too slow and committed some ugly turnovers. The Seals started with a poor shooting effort against Rochester and the Hawks jumped all over them. Calgary will need to do the same against San Diego to break into the W column. The Knighthawks pay a visit to the Loud House this week. It’s usually a difficult place to play, though Georgia was able to dominate in Denver last week. The Knighthawks are scoring plenty, as we all expected. Connor Fields has 17 points in two games, while Ryan Lanchbury, Thomas McConvey, and Ryan Smith predictably are stacking up points. Zed Williams has been an effective piece of the offense, even if it doesn’t always translate to points. The Hawks are also winning with goaltending, which we did not expect. Rylan Hartley has been electric through two games. It’s a lethal combination. The Hawks are also a great team for the “faceoffs don’t matter” crowd to point at, as they have dominated despite Jeremy Thompson currently facing off at 17.5%. Rochester comes out of the gate crazy hot. In two games they’ve given up two first quarter goals while scoring eight. They blitz teams. Colorado will need their home crowd to help them weather an early storm. 

Can Las Vegas make a loud statement?

The Desert Dogs had it all working last week against Toronto. The offense scored 17 goals from nine different players. New acquisitions Mitch Jones, Chase Fraser, and Chris Cloutier were heavily involved, as was Jon Donville. Landon Kells was solid in net. Vegas has won back to back games, and the free agent shopping spree from the offseason is paying off. This week it’s a whole different ball game. Vegas travels to Banditland to take on the three time defending champs. For Fraser and Cloutier it’s a date against their former squadmates. It’s a hostile environment that will be packed. A win in Buffalo would make it three in a row for the Dogs, sending a signal league wide that this team is not a bottom feeder anymore. What’s more, after this trip to Buffalo they have three straight games at home, hosting Saskatchewan, Philadelphia, and Oshawa. It’s a stretch of schedule where Vegas can, as crazy it sounds to do it this early, really position themselves well in the standings for the postseason. 

Free money on the unders

These games have gone over this year:

Buffalo vs Georgia

Calgary vs Saskatchewan

Vegas vs Vancouver

Vegas vs Toronto

Ottawa vs San Diego

Ottawa vs Philly

Rochester vs Philly

Out of 22 NLL games this year, seven have gone over. The under has hit 68% of the time. Totals from oddsmakers are starting to come down. Oshawa and Ottawa is set at 20.5, and if goalie and scoring trends continue as they have been, we may see a sub-20 game total. That didn’t happen once last year. In fact, the 20.5 total between Oshawa and Ottawa would have been the lowest total of last season as well; not a single game dipped that low. Colorado will add Jack Hannah to the lineup this week, fresh off his new three year max deal. Safe bet that they’ll score a lot more than three goals. I still believe a combination of elite goalie play, uncharacteristically poor shooting, and just some early season kinks in the flow are responsible and that sooner or later scoring picks back up.  I don’t bet, but if you do, I hope you’ve been enjoying this run of unders.