Denver plays the waiting game, moving the trade deadline, and it's California's title to lose. PLL Week 9 Overreactions.

Denver has the league’s worst schedule

The Outlaws looked like the possible victim of a continuing home town curse in the PLL. It has been several weeks since the home team won a game, the last win coming on June 22nd when Maryland beat Carolina in Baltimore. Denver dropped their opener to Carolina on Friday night, but lifted the curse and treated their home town fans to an all time classic on Saturday. Jared Bernhardt scored an OT game winner to give Denver a win against the top team in the east, the New York Atlas. Denver was on as quick a turnaround as anyone has had all year, playing Friday night with an 8pm start, then flexed into a 1pm start on Saturday. That’s part of the schedule being brutal for the Outlaws. But the real tough part isn’t who they’re playing next, it’s that they just aren’t playing. With the win, Denver locked up the top spot in the west, meaning they get a bye into the semifinals. The Outlaws are also on a bye week for the final PLL regular season weekend. So Denver won’t play in Boston, then there is a league wide week off, then it’s the quarterfinals in Minneapolis where Denver has a bye, and then they’ll play in the semifinals on September 1. That’s a full month between games. The Whipsnakes had a similar run this year. They had a bye before the All Star break, so they went three weeks between games. When they returned, they looked like…a team that hadn’t played in three weeks. You can only do so many zoom calls and group chats before saturation is reached and a backslide happens. Rest vs Rust is a popular playoff debate in sports, in this case, the rust is being forced upon Denver.

Friday night in Boston will be the best night of the season

We’ve got just one weekend left of the PLL regular season. Mathematically, all eight teams are still alive. On the outside as of now are Maryland and Utah. There are a number of scenarios that are key for the playoff picture, but a critical one will play out on Friday night. The weekend opens with California taking on the hometown Cannons. The home crown in Boston was tremendous last year, a true home field advantage. California will need to beat the raucous crowd and the Cannons to guarantee a playoff spot. Win, and you’re out, but lose, and all of sudden the second Friday game becomes electric. Utah plays Carolina in the second Friday game, viewable on ESPN2. If California loses, Utah has playoff life. They’ll have to win, and they’ll likely have to win big. Score differential for the Archers is currently -14, for California is -6. If the Woods were to lose by a goal it becomes -7. Utah will arrive in Boston and be cheering for a blowing Boston win in game one, and then look to play spoiler in game two. A team playing desperate for a playoff spot, and needing to run up the score to get one, makes for an electric lacrosse game. Utah being forced to fire at will against Blaze Riorden and Carolina will fill the game with desperation, recklessness, and possibly a boatload of highlight goals.

The trade deadline being this late is one of the league’s biggest mistakes.

The PLL trade deadline is set for the last Tuesday of the regular season at 2pm ET. As noted above, all eight teams are still alive. At this point in the year, it’s tough to make trades of the blockbuster variety. You may see some depth players moved, but it’s simply too late in the season for trade acquisitions to have a major impact. On Saturday, Coach Stagnitta said he hasn’t even thought about the trade market at all. On top of that, he noted that at this point, it’s hard to get a new acquisition acclimated and adjusted to the new locker room and offense. The sentiment shared by Stags is probably widely accepted across the league. Acquiring a player now, for the 19 man roster, is just as likely to monkey wrench things as it is to solve things. On top of that, it’s the time of year when nobody should be in the business of solving another team’s problem. While trade hypotheticals floated by fans and media alike are usually spurred by saying “this guy doesn’t really play for them” or “they’re super deep at the position so they can trade someone”, it’s important to understand that both of these are bad reasons to trade a player. “He doesn’t play for me so let’s make sure he plays against me instead” is not exactly savvy GM work. Being deep isn’t a problem but being light is. If a team needs an LSM to make a title run and you have three solid LSMs, you know what you shouldn’t do? Trade that team one of your LSMs. Don’t solve their problem while you are still alive for the playoffs. With the deadline coming so late, teams can hold off on deciding if they are buyers or sellers until the playoffs are here, and by then, nobody will want to be active or aggressive. Make the trade deadline week six, force the hand of fringe playoff team clubs earlier in the year, as is the case in other major pro sports.

It’s California’s title to lose

With 9:22 left in the fourth quarter, the PLL stats win probability gave California a 2.16% chance to win against the Whipsnakes. The efficacy of the win probability stat is a topic that deserves it’s own article. But directionally, the message from the stat was right. Late in the game, the Woods were down big, and would need a serious rally to come back and win. But that’s what they got. They shut out the Whips in the 4th quarter, scoring four of their own in the process, and took their first lead of the game with 41 seconds left. The execution on offense late was outstanding. The Woods were able to consistently switch the matchup for both Dylan Molloy and Chris Kavanagh, who took advantage with goals. Molloy’s goal was the ultimate game winner that put the Woods up 14-13. TD Ierlan was masterful, posting a 72% against Joe Nardella, in the process taking over as the league leader in faceoff winning percentage. Without Arden Cohen, a key back line piece for the Woods for years, they were able to lock out the Whips completely. They were able to keep Brandau, Smith, and Poitras scoreless, and gave up just two goals to TJ Malone. The Woods also got a 13 save day from Chayse Ierlan. The Woods are not a lock for the playoffs yet, but the win has them exceptionally well positioned. As noted they open the weekend against the hometown Cannons. It’s win and in for the Woods. If they lose, the Archers would need a win and to make up a significant deficit in score differential. The Woods are a team that might not execute perfectly for 48 minutes, but they’ll damn sure fight you for the full 48.